Mr Davies is well known as an iconoclast who punctures the comforting myths of countries (like England or Russia) that history has blessed with conquest, expansion and linguistic dominance. He enjoys highlighting the stories of the underdogs—be they the Welsh or the Estonians. All empires fall and all states eventually fail; the end of the United Kingdom “is a foregone conclusion”. That is a provocative point, but predictions without dates are easy. All trees fall; it is spotting the diseased ones that is tricky.

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